The risk is that a draconian budget crackdown  could lead to substantial civil unrest in Greece and elsewhere.

The debt crisis in Greece just refuses to go away. A growing stumbling block could be the unpopularity in Germany of giving the economy a bailout when Germans feel that government spending programs in Greece have consistently been excessive.

They feel that the government in Greece needs to do a lot more to cut spending. For its part, there is strong political opposition within Greece to spending cuts. The major focus of the forex trading markets is now on major debt refundings set for April and May. Odds are that either Eurozone members or a single player such as Germany, in the end will guarantee their debt.

Forex markets continue to be dissatisfied with the pace of talks about the Greek debt. Still no definitive agreement appears to have been reached as talks drag on. What is most frustrating for many outside observers is the lack of a single voice on the issue. Some continue to jawbone Greece to do more to resolve its issues by internal fiscal decisions, which the Greek government is resisting, while others are trying to reassure the markets that its debt will be backstopped.

 

The lack of a strong central government has exposed the structural weakness of the common currency scheme. In the case of the banking crisis in the U.S., there were only a handful of key players and it was abundantly clear where each one stood. Also, even though the bailout process seemed slow at the time, by comparison, the decision process was lighting fast.

A resolution to the crisis has implications beyond Greece with Portugal and Spain next facing future difficulties. A Greek solution presumably would create a template for a resolution of similar problems elsewhere. The solution in the U.S. was the much maligned TARP program. Perhaps the Maastricht Treaty might have to be renegotiated.

 The treaty made financial bailouts of individual countries illegal. Judging from the experience of the U.S., there will be times when individual entities in the system will need help. Of course some sort of realistic enforcement authority is needed as well.

A core issue here is that by being a member of the Eurozone, a large group of disparate economies locked themselves into common forex and monetary policies driven by the needs of the economies much larger and mature core Europe. Many said at the time that it would not work, and it hasn't. The risk is that a draconian budget crackdown  could lead to substantial civil unrest in Greece and elsewhere.

John M. Bland has been involved in the forex market for more than 30 years, including as a corporate advisor, institutional trader, fund manager and independent trader. He is a co-founder of Global-View.com, the leading forex discussion site and home of the original forex forum. Global-View is a place where forex traders come for currency trading , the latest rumor, breaking news and forex trading flows.