We have been looking over various forecasts for U.S. non-farm payrolls due early Friday in the U.S. Originally some forecasts had looked for a flat to positive figure. However, in the wake of a number of poor weather-impacted economic statistics, estimates for the data have been revised negatively to about -50,000.  Those seasoned in forex trading are wondering if the expected adverse impact of the weather on the data will be giving the USD a pass on the report because it will be seen as a temporary factor. Wednesday sees the monthly ADP Private Employment Report, which can provide an inkling into the Friday employment data.

Earlier, there was more than the usual uncertainty on policy heading into the Reserve Bank of Australia decision to hike its benchmark rate by 25bps today to 4.00%. Analysts seem now to have penciled in additional rate hikes on the order of +25bps a quarter to 4.75% by yearend. This is one of the few key economies in a full recovery mode. The AUD traded widely following the decision and is now a bit weaker from its N.Y. closing levels.

The GBP remains in the headlines with the latest polls now putting the Conservatives back ahead of Labour. National polls in a parliamentary system can sometimes be misleading. One has to wonder as well if the electorate is ready for an austerity government in this time of economic austerity. Forex markets have little faith in the Labour party. Worry about the economy has seen the GBP weaken modestly today.

The EUR traded a range as it still appears that some sort of French/German- led deal is shaping up to back loans on the order of EUR 30bln to get the country through its financial crisis. The odds of a default in the end are low. In the meantime, pressure on Greece to contain its spending has been intense. The government was talking about significant budget cuts today. Nationwide strikes by public sector workers are now slated for March 16. An easing of the crisis could take some pressure off the Euro. Many still worry that the EUR single currency scheme could be fatally flawed.

The focus Wednesday through Friday will be on U.S. employment data at a time when U.S. economic data appear to have been negatively influenced by a severe winter in many parts of the country. On Wednesday, Australian, 4Q09 GDP data are due. In Europe, Eurozone and U.K. Service PMI figures are due. Eurozone retail Sales are expected. In North America , the February Private jobs Survey will be released early. The U.S. ISM Service PMI is due as well. Later, the weekly DOE energy data are due. Early afternoon will see the Fed Beige Book.


John M. Bland has been involved in the forex market for more than 30 years . He is a co-founder of www.global-view.com,the leading forex discussion site and home of the original forex forums. Global-view is a place where forex traders come for currency trading, the latest rumor , breaking news and forex trading flows.